US Patent 9537884 Assessment of cyber threats

Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer storage medium, for assessing cyber threats. In some implementations, data indicating a time window is received. Data indicating at least one dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is accessed. A plurality of simulations are performed using the DBN, and outcomes of the plurality of simulations are sampled according to the state of the DBN representing the end of the time window. Based on the sampled outcomes of the simulations, a measure of impact of the computer-based threats to the organization over the time window is determined. The determined measure is provided for output to a user.