Provided is a statistical inventory management system that optimizes inventory investment using historical usage and/or consumption of an inventory component. Generally, the system determines an target inventory level. Once actual inventory is below the replenishment level, an additional supply of an inventory component is ordered. The target inventory level is determined based at least in part on the usage variability of the component. In one arrangement, the usage of the component over periods of time that correspond to a supplier lead-time of that component are utilized. The usage groups generally include several days (or other time periods) of usage data and typically haw a reduced variance compared to, for example, day-to-day usage. These reduced variance usage groups may be utilized to more accurately calculate future inventory levels for an inventory component. Further, all information is based on actual historical usage data as opposed to unsupported forecasts (e.g., sales growth forecasts).