US Patent 7113988 Proactive on-line diagnostics in a manageable network

A method for diagnosis of a system made up of a plurality of interlinked modules includes receiving an alarm from the system indicative of a fault in one of the modules. Responsive to the alarm, a causal network is constructed associating the fault with malfunctions in one or more of the modules that may have led to the fault and relating a conditional probability of the fault to respective probabilities of the malfunctions. Based on the alarm and the causal network, at least one of the probabilities of the malfunctions is updated. A diagnosis of the alarm is proposed responsive to the updated probabilities.