In one embodiment, a supervisory service for a software-defined wide area network (SD-WAN) obtains telemetry data from one or more edge devices in the SD-WAN. The service trains, using the telemetry data as training data, a machine learning-based model to predict tunnel failures in the SD-WAN. The service receives feedback from the one or more edge devices regarding failure predictions made by the trained machine learning-based model. The service retrains the machine learning-based model, based on the received feedback.