US Patent 11483224 Determining network reliability using message success rates

One embodiment of the present invention sets forth a technique for evaluating connections between nodes in a mesh network. The technique includes computing a second accumulated uplink message success rate based on a first accumulated uplink message success rate and a second accumulated downlink message success rate based on a first accumulated downlink message success rate. The first accumulated uplink message success rate indicates a probability of successfully transmitting messages from a second node to a target destination and the second accumulated uplink message success rate indicates a probability of successfully transmitting messages from the first node to the target destination via a direct connection from the first node to the second node. The first accumulated downlink message success rate indicates a probability of successfully receiving messages transmitted by the target destination at the second node and the second accumulated downlink message success rate indicates a probability of successfully receiving messages transmitted by the target destination at the first node via the direct connection.