Patent attributes
An influence system for predicting advertisement impact for campaign selection. For each campaign, an advertising probe campaign is operated by sending an advertisement to each entity in a treatment group of entities. A control group of entities which excludes the treatment group entities is selected and no campaign advertising content is sent to the treatment group entities. An influence model is created for each campaign by comparing features of the respective advertising probe campaign's treatment group converters to features of the control group converters. A campaign is selected for an opportunity to expose a specified entity to advertising based on the result of applying each respective campaign's influence model to features of the specified entity. Advantageously, a campaign operator can make good use of a rare, high quality advertising opportunity by allotting it to an advertising campaign based on a likelihood of influencing the specified entity.