The calculator shows how much reward can be expected for Pools with different parameters and different settings of the Cardano network. The calculator also estimates how much variability in the return can be expected by running a Monte Carlo simulation.
How to use:
Let the blockchain sync - This can take up to a minute after which you should see all green in "0 - Sync. Status to Cardano Blockchain" section of the calculator. If it is not 100% then try refreshing the page. If the sync state is still not 100% then come back in a few minutes.
Enter a Stake Pool Ticker, Stake Pool Hash, or the Stake Pool Id to load its parameters. For example choose the ticker DSIO
The calculator will show the expected reward distribution for that pool and other stats
Enter a different Stake Pool to check how its distribution of reward compares to the pool you selected before
Change any of the input cells that are editable. The cells that are locked will recalculate automatically
Every time you make a change all the reward calculations will refresh and run a new Monte Carlo simulations
Use a wide screen monitor if possible.
Detail explanation of the math is at the bottom of the calculator
The calculator uses Monte Carlos simulations to create a distribution of possible reward outcomes. The number of Monte Carlo simulations is currently set at 500. This is a reasonable balance that I found between accuracy and speed of execution. From a strictly scientific method this is quite a low number of simulations and something in the range of 10,000 is probably more appropriate. For this reason you will see that the Expected Reward (in Section 5) can deviate from the Average Simulated Reward (in Section 6).
Monte Carlo simulation assumes that there will be the same amount of reward to distribute across all pools throughout the year. For this to happen the fees from transactions need to increase substantially.
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