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February 17, 2021
Here are some ways to do startup analysis before you throw your money away.
Usually, before making a decision to invest, I evaluate tokenomics, idea, project team, market cap and unlocks of all rounds.
Let's take project KelVPN, one of the last projects I joined at private stage, as an example.
You can see the tokenomics of the project itself at the bottom of the post. The post on cryptocurrencies of words was here.
Let's go:
1. The team + the product itself. See the off-site, study the team. What the team has done before, how many people are included, what the idea is. In this case - the product idea is super clear, VPN on the blockchain. No servers, the servers replace the nodes. Saw the product on Cellframe, which gave good X's from private.
The team are absolute nonces to me. Judging by the linkedin they came from demlabs. Not great, but okay.
2. Foundations. Go to Twitter/Medium, look for information about foundations that have already joined the project. What for? Foundations are always loyalty from the hamsters, when the token is already poured. All are guided by an opinion, that if a large fund has entered, it means they see something in the project, I will buy their token on listing. We see Moonwhale, Magnus, Titans, APE, A2. The set of funds is not bad, but far from the top. In my opinion, everything is OK here.
3. The most interesting thing is the metrics.
I teach you how to read them correctly.
The total token saplay is 100,000,000 KEL. The project offered to enter at the stage of the private round.
We have:
Private / price $0.085 / 20% at TGE, 8 week cliff and 16% per month for 5 months
What it means. The price we will enter will be $0.085. We will get 20% of tokens at TGE (listing) of the project, then 8 weeks we will not receive anything (it is called cliff) and then 16% for 5 months.
In total we will receive all tokens in 7 months (2 months of cliff + 5 months of 16% delays). Overall, the metrics are ok, but we need to compare them with other stages of presale.
And that's where the fun part comes in.
If we look at seed, we see a 10% split on TGE, and then 12 weeks of cliff (vs. 8 weeks for private). What does that mean for us? That after TGE the price will be shed as follows, because everyone will have tokens in their hands, and after that there will be no new tokens in the market for 2 months. And the first ones who will receive them will be the private rounds. That is, the cup will be warmed by buyers for us for 2 months and we will unload exactly into it, while seed will have another month to wait for their tokens. I really like it.
Team unloading is a 12 month cliff, which means we won't see team tokens on the market in the first year. Also a klip, it means the team does not have the task of shedding the project in six months and forget about it. Bottom line - for me, very good metrics.
4. market cap. This is the estimation of the project at the time of its listing on the stock exchange. It is composed of the number of all unlocked tokens of ALL ROUNDS at the time of listing, multiplied by the public sale price. We have 10% unlock for SID, 20% for PRIVATE and 100% for PUBLIC. Multiplied by the amount of tokens allocated for each round (amount of tokens), we get 1.000.000 tokens for the Sid, 5.000.000 for the Private and 2.000.000 for the Public. Total 8.000.000 tokens will be in circulation * 0.09$ (public price) = 720.000$ marketcap +- several thousands for all sorts of bonuses/drops/promos etc.
Anything below 1 million is fine. Since adequate market will be around 4-5 million (in the experience of other projects, this is the minimum). And that will give us x5-x7 +++.
Exactly what the price will be - will depend solely on those who want to buy this token after listing. And here already comes into play PR/promo/hype/number of IDO on different sites. And plus the idea of the project of course.
As a result:
I see quite a transparent idea with VPN , which no one saw before, but I see the appearance of a similar product in the next couple of weeks from hackenAI. Good metrics, normal marketcap, open (though not media) team + second-rate funds on board.
Summary - you can go in with the understanding that we will most likely recoup our entire investment from the first 20% unlock and the remaining 80% tokens will be completely free for us. Score is a solid 4/5. Not a gem, but it should pay off nicely.